All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | |
Valley Cross Kickoff |
Seymour Invitational |
Lou Knoble Invitational |
Rick Weinheimer Classic |
Eagle Classic |
Ray Gerkin Invitational |
Duke Meyer Invitational |
Hoosier Hills Conference |
Austin Sectional |
Columbus North Regional |
Brown County Semi-State |
|---|
| Date | |
8/15 |
8/18 |
8/21 |
9/4 |
9/11 |
9/18 |
9/25 |
10/2 |
10/9 |
10/16 |
10/23 |
| Team Rating |
523 |
573 |
515 |
|
480 |
461 |
511 |
544 |
456 |
506 |
604 |
612 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | |
540 |
502 |
|
480 |
461 |
511 |
520 |
456 |
506 |
604 |
612 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating |
Valley Cross Kickoff |
Seymour Invitational |
Lou Knoble Invitational |
Rick Weinheimer Classic |
Eagle Classic |
Ray Gerkin Invitational |
Duke Meyer Invitational |
Hoosier Hills Conference |
Austin Sectional |
Columbus North Regional |
Brown County Semi-State |
|---|
| 192 |
Eli Wahlman |
11 |
17:00 |
17:12 |
17:06 |
|
16:58 |
16:50 |
16:58 |
16:57 |
16:50 |
16:49 |
17:00 |
17:34 |
| 222 |
Lane Elsner |
12 |
17:06 |
16:58 |
16:35 |
|
16:36 |
16:39 |
17:08 |
16:58 |
17:04 |
17:01 |
17:35 |
17:47 |
| 302 |
Aidan Ernstes |
12 |
17:22 |
17:42 |
17:30 |
18:35 |
17:04 |
17:06 |
17:13 |
17:14 |
17:13 |
17:25 |
17:33 |
17:21 |
| 357 |
Brenden Baker |
12 |
17:29 |
|
|
|
17:45 |
17:28 |
17:25 |
17:44 |
17:13 |
17:34 |
17:44 |
17:19 |
| 440 |
Logan Mcintosh |
12 |
17:40 |
17:54 |
17:35 |
|
17:37 |
17:42 |
17:42 |
|
17:24 |
17:31 |
17:57 |
17:42 |
| 568 |
Noah McFall |
11 |
17:52 |
17:29 |
17:38 |
|
17:44 |
17:43 |
17:59 |
17:58 |
17:53 |
17:44 |
17:46 |
18:32 |
| 977 |
Elijah Hatton |
10 |
18:30 |
21:07 |
18:51 |
18:56 |
18:36 |
18:48 |
18:42 |
18:30 |
18:26 |
18:05 |
19:09 |
18:46 |
|
Brock Maschino |
9 |
19:17 |
19:25 |
19:15 |
19:29 |
19:44 |
19:01 |
19:09 |
18:52 |
19:43 |
|
|
|
|
Levi Marsh |
11 |
19:42 |
20:32 |
20:03 |
20:03 |
19:42 |
19:54 |
19:42 |
19:08 |
19:27 |
|
|
|
|
Bryce McIntosh |
11 |
19:46 |
|
19:06 |
|
|
19:25 |
20:30 |
|
19:54 |
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Semi-State |
100% |
8.9 |
264 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.3 |
1.8 |
7.6 |
13.4 |
19.1 |
23.5 |
16.1 |
9.1 |
5.0 |
2.4 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
2.7 |
78 |
|
28.3 |
71.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
1.7 |
31 |
27.2 |
72.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Eli Wahlman |
0.8% |
106.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.8% |
0.8% |
| Lane Elsner |
0.1% |
107.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Eli Wahlman |
100% |
43.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Lane Elsner |
100% |
47.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Aidan Ernstes |
100% |
59.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Brenden Baker |
100% |
66.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Logan Mcintosh |
100% |
82.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Noah McFall |
100% |
99.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Elijah Hatton |
100% |
140.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
93.3% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Eli Wahlman |
100% |
10.6 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.3 |
3.2 |
5.1 |
11.8 |
18.6 |
14.8 |
11.9 |
10.9 |
11.6 |
7.0 |
2.6 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Lane Elsner |
100% |
12.3 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
2.1 |
5.1 |
10.4 |
14.3 |
12.6 |
12.3 |
14.1 |
17.2 |
7.0 |
2.4 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Aidan Ernstes |
100% |
16.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
6.3 |
11.7 |
22.6 |
21.9 |
14.9 |
8.7 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Brenden Baker |
100% |
17.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
2.5 |
5.0 |
11.3 |
19.5 |
22.6 |
18.2 |
12.7 |
4.5 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
100.0% |
| Logan Mcintosh |
100% |
19.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.4 |
4.0 |
9.8 |
17.4 |
25.4 |
30.2 |
8.7 |
1.4 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Noah McFall |
100% |
21.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
7.6 |
19.8 |
48.6 |
11.5 |
4.3 |
2.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Elijah Hatton |
100% |
29.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
2.7 |
4.6 |
5.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Eli Wahlman |
1.9 |
32.1 |
19.9 |
13.1 |
11.7 |
14.0 |
7.6 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Lane Elsner |
3.4 |
11.1 |
19.4 |
14.5 |
13.2 |
15.3 |
20.9 |
4.9 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Aidan Ernstes |
6.5 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
4.4 |
5.2 |
7.2 |
12.5 |
36.0 |
24.3 |
8.1 |
1.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Brenden Baker |
7.6 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
3.4 |
5.7 |
17.7 |
35.2 |
27.2 |
7.2 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Logan Mcintosh |
9.2 |
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
8.4 |
29.3 |
46.8 |
10.7 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Noah McFall |
10.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
3.9 |
18.5 |
63.7 |
10.5 |
2.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Elijah Hatton |
14.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
7.7 |
14.5 |
19.5 |
15.3 |
12.9 |
10.9 |
8.4 |
5.5 |
3.2 |
1.6 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
